Asteroid 2024 YR4 may hit Earth in 2032 & Indian cities are at risk. NASA warns of potential impact zones

In late December 2023, an asteroid named 2024 YR4 was discovered, and now it's creating waves in the scientific community. Experts are paying close attention to its path due to the possibility that it could strike Earth in 2032. The asteroid, although small by space standards, has the potential to cause massive damage if it collides with our planet.

The asteroid was first spotted by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile, and while its estimated size - ranging from 130 to 300 feet - may not seem daunting compared to other space giants, its speed and potential impact force have made it a top priority for space agencies.

Potential collision

According to NASA, there is a 3.1% chance that 2024 YR4 could hit Earth on December 22, 2032. Meanwhile, the European Space Agency (ESA) estimates the probability at 2.8%. Though these numbers may appear low, they are significant enough to warrant continuous observation.

If 2024 YR4 were to strike Earth, the results could be catastrophic. Moving at a staggering 40,000 miles per hour, the asteroid could generate an explosive force of eight megatons of TNT—500 times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb. Such an impact could flatten an entire city, leaving behind devastation on an unimaginable scale.

Yet, while scientists acknowledge the potential danger, they are not sounding the alarm just yet. As Richard Moissl, head of ESA's planetary defense bureau, reassures, "This is not a crisis today. This is not the dinosaur killer. This is not the planet killer. This is the worst case for at most a city."

One of the biggest unknowns surrounding 2024 YR4 is its composition. Scientists have yet to determine whether the asteroid is solid or porous, a factor that significantly impacts how it would behave upon entering Earth’s atmosphere.

As Mark Boslough, a physicist at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, explains, "We don’t know how porous or dense it is, so its mass, and therefore the energy it would emit if it blows up on the surface of the Earth or blows up in the atmosphere, is unknown."

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To resolve these uncertainties, the James Webb Space Telescope is set to observe the asteroid in March 2025, providing crucial data on its composition and trajectory.

Possible impact zones: Millions at risk?

If 2024 YR4 were to make impact, certain regions are at greater risk than others. NASA has identified possible impact zones, including:

- The eastern Pacific
- Northern South America
- The Atlantic Ocean
- Parts of Africa
- The Arabian Sea and South Asia

Densely populated cities such as Mumbai, Kolkata, Dhaka, Bogota, and Lagos fall within these regions, placing over 110 million people at potential risk. While the odds of impact remain slim, the sheer number of lives in these areas has scientists and policymakers on edge.

Can We Stop It?

In 2022, NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) successfully altered an asteroid’s trajectory, proving that Earth has the technology to deflect incoming space threats. If 2024 YR4’s risk level rises in the coming years, similar deflection missions could be deployed to push it off its collision course.

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