245% Shock: The US-China Fight Hurting Indian Pockets and Global Dreams | Opinion

The world is watching a massive fight between the United States and China, two of the biggest economies, over trade. The US has slapped a huge 245% tariff, or tax, on goods coming from China, making them super expensive. China hit back with a 125% tariff on American goods. This trade war, which started getting worse in April 2025, is like a storm shaking up prices, jobs, and markets everywhere, including India. For common people like you and me, it means higher prices for things we buy, fewer job opportunities in some industries, and a lot of uncertainty about the future. Let’s break it down in simple terms: why is this happening, how does it affect us, and when or how might it end?

First, why are the US and China fighting like this? It’s about power and money. The US, led by President Donald Trump, says China’s cheap goods flood their markets, hurting American workers. They also don’t like that China controls important materials like gallium and rare earths, used in phones, computers, and even weapons. These materials are like the backbone of modern technology, and China stopping their supply to the US made America angry. So, the US put this 245% tariff to make Chinese goods costly, hoping to bring jobs back home. China, on the other hand, says the US is bullying them and responded with their own tariffs. It’s like two giants arguing, and the whole world feels the noise.

Now, how does this affect people globally? When tariffs make goods expensive, companies pass those costs to customers. In the US, things like clothes, electronics, and toys from China now cost much more. A phone that was ₹20,000 might now be ₹30,000 or more. This means people have less money to spend on other things, and life gets tougher, especially for the poor. Jobs are also at risk. Some US factories might grow, but others that need Chinese parts could shut down, leaving workers jobless. In China, factories that sell to the US are struggling, and workers there are losing jobs too. This trade war also messes up global supply chains. For example, a car made in Germany might need parts from China, but with tariffs, those parts are pricier, so the car costs more everywhere.

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For India, this trade war is a mixed bag. On one hand, it’s a chance to shine. As Chinese goods get too expensive in the US, American companies might buy from India instead. Our textile, medicine, and chemical industries could see a boom. For instance, Indian farmers might sell more soybeans to the US, like they did during the last trade war in 2018. This could mean more jobs and money for some Indian workers. Plus, the US has paused tariffs on India for 90 days, giving us a breather to negotiate a trade deal. But there’s a catch. If China sends its cheap goods to India instead of the US, our local businesses, like solar panel or toy makers, could suffer. Also, global markets are shaky because of this war, and Indian stock markets have already lost ₹20 lakh crore in value. For common people, this means higher prices for imported goods like phones or laptops. If you’re saving for a new gadget, you might need to wait longer or pay more.

What about the global impact beyond India? Countries like Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia are also feeling the heat. China’s cheap goods are flooding their markets, hurting local businesses. For example, Indonesia’s garment workers are losing jobs because Chinese clothes are cheaper. In Sri Lanka, a small country that sells a lot to the US, these tariffs could wreck their economy, as the US is their biggest market. Even rich countries like Germany are worried because they sell cars and machines to both the US and China. If this war continues, the world economy could lose billions, leading to fewer jobs and tighter budgets everywhere. The International Monetary Fund says global growth could drop by 0.5%, which is like losing hundreds of billions of dollars.

When will this end, and how? Right now, in April 2025, there’s no sign of peace. Both the US and China are stubborn, raising tariffs instead of talking. Trump says China must make a deal, but China’s leaders say they won’t bow down. Experts think this could drag on for months or even years because both countries want to look strong. There are a few ways it might end. One, they could negotiate a deal where both lower tariffs, like they did in 2020 after the last trade war. But this time, the fight is bigger, so it’s harder. Two, one side might back down, but that’s unlikely since both want to save face. Three, the World Trade Organization could step in, but it’s weak right now, and the US doesn’t always listen to it. The most hopeful path is talks, but for that, both leaders need to cool off and focus on their people, not just pride.

For India, the best move is to play smart. Our government is already talking to the US for a trade deal, aiming for $500 billion in trade by 2030. We should keep pushing to sell more medicines, clothes, and tech services to the US, where we’re strong. At home, we need to protect our businesses from cheap Chinese goods by setting our own rules, like anti-dumping taxes. For common Indians, this means staying ready for higher prices and maybe looking for local products instead of imported ones. It’s also a chance for our workers and companies to step up and grab new markets.

In the end, this 245% tariff war is like a big wave hitting everyone—shoppers, workers, and businesses. In India, we’ll feel it through pricier goods and shaky markets, but we also have a chance to grow if we act wisely. Globally, people are bracing for tough times, with fewer jobs and higher costs. Nobody knows when it’ll end, but the sooner the US and China talk instead of fight, the better for all of us. Until then, we must hold on, adapt, and hope our leaders make choices that put people first.

(The author Girish Linganna of this article is an award-winning Science Writer and a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru. He is also Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. You can reach him, at: girishlinganna@gmail.com)