Arsenal vs Real Madrid Prediction: Can the Gunners defy history?

Arsenal welcome reigning champions Real Madrid to the Emirates Stadium for a mouthwatering UEFA Champions League quarter-final first leg on April 9 (12:30 am IST). With both sides eyeing a spot in the semi-finals, here’s a comprehensive look at what to expect from this high-voltage clash.

History favours Real Madrid

According to the Opta supercomputer, Arsenal are slight favourites with a 41.7% chance of winning the first leg. Real Madrid’s chances stand at 31.1%, while the probability of a draw is 27.2%.

Despite the odds, history favours the Spanish giants. Real Madrid have won 11 of their last 22 Champions League knockout games against English clubs. Arsenal, meanwhile, haven’t progressed past this stage since 2009.

Rare Head-to-Head History

Surprisingly, these European heavyweights have only met once before in the Champions League. That was in 2006 when Arsenal edged Real Madrid 1-0 over two legs in the Round of 16. Thierry Henry’s iconic goal at the Santiago Bernabéu secured the Gunners’ only win against Los Blancos — and propelled them to their first and only final in the competition.

Contrasting European Pedigree

The gap in European experience is stark. While Arsenal are aiming for their first semi-final in 16 years, Real Madrid have lifted the Champions League trophy six times since the Gunners’ last quarter-final success in 2009.

Madrid also boast an ominous record in first legs — unbeaten in their last eight Champions League knockout openers, with five wins in that stretch. They’ve also suffered just two defeats in their last 13 away first-leg ties.

Injury Concerns on Both Sides

Injuries could shape the contest. Arsenal will be without Kai Havertz, Gabriel Magalhaes, Riccardo Calafiori, Gabriel Jesus, and Takehiro Tomiyasu. Ben White made his return over the weekend, and Jurriën Timber is fit enough to feature.

Real Madrid, too, are missing key players. Thibaut Courtois is a doubt but could return. Dani Carvajal and Rder Militao remain out, while Aurelien Tchouameni is suspended. Dani Ceballos and Ferland Mendy may be available for selection.

Also read: Arsenal vs Real Madrid Preview: A Champions League quarter-final showdown where defense could trump attack

Defensive Titans Collide

Both teams have shown defensive excellence in the 2024–25 Champions League. Arsenal top the competition for lowest xG against per game (0.88) and have conceded just 0.6 goals per match. Only Inter Milan have a better record.

Goalkeeper David Raya has been instrumental, conceding 3.7 fewer goals than expected based on xGOT (expected goals on target). Arsenal have led for 568 minutes — the most of any team this season.

Mbappe Threat Looms Large

Real Madrid's star forward Kylian Mbappe will be the biggest threat to Arsenal's defence. The Frenchman has scored 10 goals in 16 Champions League games against English clubs — including four against Manchester City this season.

Karim Benzema holds the record for most knockout goals in a single season against English clubs (seven in 2021–22), and while he is no longer at the club, Mbappe could challenge that feat.

Generational Clash: Youth vs Experience

Tuesday’s clash could showcase two of England’s brightest teenage talents. Arsenal’s Myles Lewis-Skelly and Ethan Nwaneri could become the second and third English players aged 18 or under to start a Champions League quarter-final — the first being Jude Bellingham, who will line up against them for Real Madrid.

At the other end of the spectrum is Luka Modric. The 38-year-old Croatian remains crucial to Madrid’s play and leads the competition in line-breaking passes per 90 minutes (17.5) among players with 500+ minutes.

Can Arsenal Keep the Dream Alive?

Real Madrid have defeated 111 different clubs in European competition — Arsenal are not one of them. The Gunners will be desperate to keep it that way as they look to take a lead to the Spanish capital.

Both clubs drew the first leg of their quarter-finals last season — Arsenal 2-2 vs Bayern, and Madrid 3-3 vs Man City. A similar result may not be enough for the Gunners, who will need to draw on every ounce of resilience and inspiration to outlast the most decorated club in European history.