Tesla Retail Investors Are Feeling Bullish Ahead Of Q1 Deliveries Report, Wall Street Not So Much

Shares of Tesla, Inc. ended 3.6% higher on Tuesday, with retail investors holding on to optimism as the EV maker gears up to report first-quarter delivery numbers on Wednesday.

According to consensus estimates compiled by FactSet, analysts expect Tesla to have delivered 408,000 cars in the first three months of 2025, which implies a 5% rise from the year-ago period.

However, recent reports of slumping sales in Europe and China in the first two months of the year — which many pin to CEO Elon Musk's erratic politics as part of the Trump administration — have prompted Wall Street analysts to dial back their estimates.

According to Forbes, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and UBS have slashed their Tesla Q1 delivery forecasts to between 351,000 and 375,000 units. The report also noted that if Tesla's deliveries for the period fall below 353,000, it would mark its worst quarter in at least eight years.

On Stocktwits, where Tesla has over a million followers, sentiment remained 'bullish' although message volume dropped by 11%.

Musk's announcement that Tesla vehicles will begin operating with full self-driving capabilities without supervision in Austin, Texas, starting in June and in other U.S. cities later this year encouraged several users.

"Everyone expecting a miss tomorrow on Q1 deliveries, we'll find out how much of that is already priced in. If the herd is waiting for a gap down to buy and every bear is expecting a layup, then we might all be surprised how the market reacts regardless of the numbers," said one user.

Another user expects Tesla to report at least 340,000 deliveries for the first quarter.

On Tuesday, Tesla's stock rose despite two negative catalysts threatening to weigh it down.

Wells Fargo included Tesla as its only 'Underweight' tactical idea among 10 stocks across nine subsectors, citing the "undeniable continuation of deteriorating fundamentals" in its core auto business. 

The research firm argued that Tesla remains significantly overvalued compared to the 'Magnificent 7' based on 2025 price-to-earnings ratios and cast doubt on the feasibility of its June Cybercab deployment, calling it a "pipedream" given the limited unsupervised testing.

Meanwhile, Tesla's new car sales in Denmark plummeted 65.6% year-over-year in March to just 593 vehicles, according to a Reuters report.

Tesla stock is down more than 31% this year after marking its worst quarter since 2022. 

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