Nvidia’s data center revenue and its Q1 forecast will be closely watched, with analysts expecting a more muted spillover effect on the broader market this time around.
- Analysts expect Nvidia’s Q4 sales to rise 67% to $65.7 billion, above the Q3 pace - Koyfin.
- Commentary on AI chip demand, the Chinese market, and memory chip shortages would be closely watched.
- Retail traders remain skeptical, lending a ‘bearish’ sentiment, amid range-bound activity in NVDA stock over the past few months.
It never seems enough for Nvidia investors these days. Wall Street's artificial-intelligence (AI) darling has repeatedly topped expectations in recent quarters, pushing the yardstick even higher. But its quarterly report, due Wednesday after the close, arrives in a far more subdued backdrop.
Tech stocks, including Nvidia, have come under pressure in recent months amid fresh concerns over AI-driven disruption, hefty capital-spending plans from major tech companies, and geopolitical tensions, including increased U.S. involvement in the Iran crisis.
At the same time, memory chip shortages and rising component costs are weighing on device makers from consumer electronics to automakers, pressures that could filter into Nvidia’s bottom line. With “AI bubble” fears lingering, investors are increasingly asking whether and when Nvidia’s breakneck growth might begin to slow.
Key metrics in focus will include fourth-quarter revenue, growth in the core data center segment, expansion in remaining performance obligations (booked but unrecognized revenue), and guidance for first-quarter sales.
Investors will also scrutinize commentary on China, where Nvidia has faced delays in resuming sales of its H200 chips pending regulatory approval.
Nvidia Analysts’ Take
Nvidia has largely locked in advanced wafer, CoWoS and DRAM supply for its Grace Blackwell platform, positioning it to better navigate server component constraints than peers and defend market share through 2026, Wedbush said.
The research firm also flagged hyperscaler capital expenditures as a key upside driver, with 2026 forecasts now running ahead of prior expectations. Spending from top customers such as Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta Platforms is accelerating, with AI investment likely outpacing broader capex growth.
D.A. Davidson and JPMorgan reiterated their ‘Buy’ rating on NVDA stock earlier this week. The former noted that Nvidia’s report might not move the broader market as much as it typically does, as investors have diversified their attention across multiple AI-focused firms.
Overall, analysts expect revenue to rise 67% to $65.7 billion and adjusted profit to rise 71% to $1.53 per share, according to Koyfin. They broadly forecast another blowout quarter, and some emphasise that future business projections would be key.
Market Signals
Last month, Nvidia’s main chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC), reported a blowout quarter and increased its 2026 capex outlay by 37%. That signals robust demand for AI chips, providing a favorable backdrop for Nvidia.
Meanwhile, Nvidia’s expanded partnership with key customer Meta Platforms, its re-entry into the PC processors market, and the unveiling of its next-generation Rubin chips and Vera Rubin AI platform are viewed as meaningful catalysts for its core business.
In Q3, Nvidia reported a record $57 billion in sales and said its AI data center segment revenue surged 66% to exceed $50 billion for the first time. The company guided Q4 sales to be $65 billion.
Retail’s View On NVDA
An overwhelming 89% of over 1,000 respondents in a Stocktwits poll believe Nvidia will report Q4 sales and EPS above analysts’ targets.
However, the broader retail view appears dull, partly due to stock pressure. Nvidia shares have gained a modest 2.7% year to date, pressured by an intense selloff in technology stocks. They are down about 8% from their Nov. 3 peak.
The Stocktwits sentiment has remained ‘bearish’ since the start of last week. “So everything I am reading points to absolutely blowout earnings. Nothing but success and dominance. Yet, there is skepticism,” a user said.
“Normally, I would be short term bearish on NVDA going into Earnings. However, with so much bearishness surrounding AI right now, I have to be a contrarian and be bullish on NVDA earnings. I think they blow away earnings like never before,” another user said.
S3 Partners reported that about $50 billion in short positions on NVDA were in place, the highest in the S&P 500 by dollar value. The firm expects +/- 4% swing in shares post the results.
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