Nvidia accounts for roughly 8% of the S&P 500, making its Q4 earnings a market-moving event.
- Fundstrat’s Mark Newton warned that cycle indicators turning less supportive next month could raise the risk of a near-term “false breakout.”
- HSBC cut its price target on Nvidia to ‘$310’ from ‘$320’ but kept a ‘Buy’ rating, implying about 61% upside from current levels.
- Nvidia’s valuation has eased from last year’s peaks as the stock traded in a range, while short interest has risen to the highest notional level in the S&P 500.
Shares of Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) notched their highest close of 2026 on Tuesday, putting the AI bellwether back in retail focus ahead of its fourth-quarter (Q4) results due after the bell on Wednesday.
NVDA stock jumped 0.7% on Tuesday to hit $192.85, marking its third consecutive session of gains.
Mark Newton Flags Cycle Headwinds For Nvidia
Fundstrat’s head of technical strategy, Mark Newton, said on X that Nvidia “DID make its highest close of 2026” on Tuesday, but could face headwinds from a cycle composite that is “not too bullish” starting next month. Newton also said it is important to watch both Nvidia and Apple, given their weight in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100, adding he would not be surprised to see a “false Breakout post close” that reverses by early next week.
Nvidia accounts for roughly 8% of the S&P 500, making its Q4 earnings a market-moving event.
Separately, Freedom Capital Markets chief market strategist Jay Woods said Nvidia’s results will test important levels for both the stock and the broader market, given Nvidia’s index weight. Woods said investors should watch how Nvidia closes on Thursday, and that if the stock pulls back, the 200-day moving average near $173 would be a key level. Woods also pointed to the S&P 500’s 100-day moving average near 6,822, saying a break could open the door to further downside.
Latest Analyst Call: HSBC Cuts Target, But Sees 61% Upside
HSBC lowered its price target on Nvidia to ‘$310’ from ‘$320’ on Tuesday, implying a 61% upside from current levels, and kept a ‘Buy’ rating ahead of earnings. HSBC expects Nvidia to report Q4 revenue of $68 billion, which it said is 5% above the company’s guidance and 3% above the Visible Alpha consensus. As the GB300 continues to ramp into FY27, HSBC said it expects first-quarter revenue of $74 billion, about 3% above Visible Alpha consensus. The firm noted it does not include any China revenue in its estimates.
Wall Street View Of NVDA
Wall Street analysts expect Nvidia to report a sharp year-over-year increase in Q4 revenue and earnings. Fiscal.ai data anticipates revenue around $65.69 billion to $66.12 billion, with earnings per share (EPS) expected at $1.53, up from $0.89 a year earlier.
Nvidia guided for about $65 billion in Q4 sales after reporting a record $57 billion in Q3 revenue, when its AI data center segment revenue surged 66% to exceed $50 billion for the first time.
Analysts at Wedbush said Nvidia has largely locked in advanced wafer, CoWoS and DRAM supply for its Grace Blackwell platform, positioning it to better navigate server component constraints than peers, while also flagging hyperscaler capital spending as a key potential driver into 2026. D.A. Davidson and JPMorgan reiterated ‘Buy’ ratings on Monday, with D.A. Davidson noting that Nvidia’s report may move the broader market less than it typically has as investors diversify attention across AI names.
Nvidia Valuation Off Peaks As Market Braces For Q4
Nvidia hit a $5 trillion market capitalization in October 2025 and has been the primary driver of equity market gains since 2023, at times larger than several entire S&P 500 sectors, according to a Bloomberg report.
That said, Nvidia’s recent range-bound trading has brought its valuation down from last year’s peaks. The stock is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 27 as of Tuesday, down from a recent peak of 27.4 on Jan. 29 and sharply lower than 36.1 in late October.
Nvidia also has the highest short exposure in the S&P 500 ahead of earnings, according to an analysis by S3 Partners cited in the material you provided. S3 said investors have shorted about 265 million shares, worth roughly $50 billion in notional terms, the largest dollar short exposure in the index. Options markets are pricing an implied about 4% one-day move after earnings, S3 said.
S3 also noted that Nvidia’s 50-day moving average has been flat since November, while moving average convergence divergence (MACD) and relative strength index (RSI) are near neutral, suggesting no strong directional bias.
China And Export Controls Remain In Focus
China-related developments have added another layer of scrutiny ahead of the results. A U.S. Commerce Department official said at a congressional hearing on Tuesday that, to his understanding, Nvidia’s H200 chips have not been sold to Chinese customers.
U.S. authorities have allowed limited sales of Nvidia’s second-most-advanced AI chips to China under certain conditions, while exports of the company’s most advanced Blackwell chips remain restricted.
Earlier, Reuters reported allegations that Chinese AI startup DeepSeek trained models using Nvidia Blackwell chips, citing a senior U.S. official who said such activity would violate U.S. export laws. The official said the company was expected to remove technical indicators suggesting the use of the chips.
How Did Stocktwits Users React?
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for NVDA has moved to the ‘neutral’ zone from ‘bearish’ territory over the past day amid a 420% surge in message volumes over the past month.
One user said, “Zero H200 sales to China so far shows how tight export enforcement is. Short term = supply stays concentrated with U.S./allies. Long term = risk of accelerating domestic competition abroad. AI dominance depends on both tech edge and global scale.”
Another user expects, “Blowout earnings as usual, Stock will move up another 5-6% as usual”
NVDA stock has risen 3.4% year-to-date.
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