Apple Reclaims $3T Market Cap As Wall Street Cheers Trump's Temporary Tariff Relief, But Retail Traders Remain Skeptical

Apple, Inc. (AAPL) shares rallied Monday, outperforming the broader market, fueled by positive news about the Trump administration's decision to exclude some tech products from the "reciprocal tariff" list.

The stock ended the session 2.21% higher at $202.52, accompanied by above-average trading volume. The iPhone maker also regained its $3 trillion market capitalization.

Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives said Apple has one to two months to plan its supply chain for a tariff component with India to expand iPhone production.

According to the analyst, the breathing room Apple has gained will keep it from automatically starting passive price increases to U.S. consumers.

"[The] White House is showing some flexibility around tech/semi components, which we view as a positive," he added.

Ives said he remains bullish on the long-term opportunity for Apple's flagship ecosystem.

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring said Apple and Logitech International S.A. (LOGI) are the biggest incremental beneficiaries of the latest tariff exemptions.

Woodring estimates Apple's annualized tariff cost burden to be much more "manageable" at $7 billion, or just 5% of earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT), versus $44 billion estimates as of last Thursday. 

According to Morgan Stanley, Apple's near-term cost burden will likely be minimal due to the India-based iPhone production increasing by 60% yearly through March and the company pulling forward millions of units of inventory ahead of the original April 11 deadline.

The analyst does not see the need for Apple to hike iPhone prices over the medium term. Instead, the company can leverage a greater mix of Indian production, pressure suppliers to share in costs, eliminate low-end storage stock-keeping units, and work with carrier/trade-in partners to make devices more affordable, he added.

Goldman Sachs, Citi, and KeyBanc expressed similar sentiments. The Fly reported that KeyBanc upgraded the stock to 'Sector Weight' from 'Underweight.' Calling Friday's tariff news the best-case scenario for Apple, the firm said it takes a big risk off the table.

However, President Donald Trump and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick have flagged separate levies for semiconductor imports.

On Stocktwits, retail's sentiment toward Apple stock stayed 'bearish' (27/100), although the message volume was 'extremely high.'

A bearish watcher said selling in Apple stock could resume shortly.

Another user saw Monday's gain as a "good exit price."

Shares of the company were among the top ten most active tickers on Stocktwits by late Monday.

Apple stock is still down 19% this year, although the Koyfin-compiled consensus price target of $240.14 implies about 19% upside potential.

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