Urban decline or data deficit? Leaked Karnataka caste report stirs policy debate

Bengaluru: A leaked caste census report from 2015 has triggered widespread debate in Karnataka, revealing an unexpected decline in the state's urban population and casting a spotlight on data collection challenges in a rapidly urbanizing society.

The report, based on a socio-economic and educational survey conducted by the Karnataka Permanent Backward Classes Commission, suggests that the state's urban population declined from 38.7% in 2011 to 34% in 2015. This trend runs counter to the national pattern of increasing urbanization and has raised concerns among demographers, policymakers, and political observers.

“Urban data was the toughest to gather,” a source familiar with the survey told reporters. Enumerators reportedly struggled to access gated communities and faced resistance from urban residents reluctant to participate. High population mobility in cities further complicated enumeration, contributing to significant underreporting.

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In contrast to rural areas, where households are generally stable and accessible, urban landscapes posed unique challenges. “The data seems skewed due to undercounting in urban pockets,” said a Bengaluru-based demographer. “It’s not a demographic trend, but it’s a data gap.”

Despite the overall decline, the leaked data reveals interesting patterns of urbanization among different communities. Of Karnataka's 77 lakh Muslims, 57% (approximately 45 lakh) reside in urban areas. Christians also show high urban concentration, with 63% of their 9.5 lakh population living in cities.

Brahmins display the highest urban presence, with 72% (11.3 lakh of 15.6 lakh) residing in urban centers. On the other end of the spectrum, urban representation among Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes stands at 27% and 15%, respectively. Vokkaligas and Lingayats show moderate urbanization at 27.5% and 25%. The Kuruba community, to which Chief Minister Siddaramaiah belongs, shows the lowest urbanization rate, with only 17% (7.7 lakh of 43.7 lakh) living in cities.

With socio-economic data playing a key role in shaping public policy, including reservation and welfare programs, the Karnataka government is under pressure to review the findings. Experts suggest that the data be updated and possibly amended before being made public.

“There’s a clear need for revision, and this report should not be seen as final,” said one official, who requested anonymity ahead of a special cabinet meeting scheduled to discuss the issue. “Urbanization has only increased since 2015. The current figures simply don’t reflect that reality," he added.

As public debate intensifies, the government has yet to issue an official comment on the leaked report or clarify whether an updated version will be released. Given the growing importance of caste and economic data in shaping policies related to reservations and welfare, the leak has reignited calls for more transparent, inclusive, and up-to-date data collection practices to ensure informed and equitable decision-making.