Explained: Why Kashmir is feeling dry this winter season

As the global temperature rises and climate change extends its reach across the globe, the Himalayan region is experiencing unprecedented loss of snow from its mountains. Beyond the reduction in the frequency of snowfall, there is a noticeable decline in the number of cold days in the hills, accompanied by elevated day and night temperatures, underscoring the influence of climate change. 

Across regions from Nepal to the Indian section of the Hindu Kush, mountain peaks devoid of snow serve as a stark warning about the repercussions of global warming and climate change.

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the western Himalayan region experienced an 80 per cent precipitation deficit in December, and January has seen minimal rainfall. The absence of active western disturbances, which typically bring unseasonal rainfall to northwest India, is identified as the cause of the dry conditions. This meteorological pattern is also responsible for the prolonged and dense fog covering the plains since December 25.

Impact on Freshwater and Agriculture

The precipitation deficit is expected to affect freshwater availability in the Himalayan region, impacting horticulture and agricultural production. Sonam Lotus, the head of the meteorological centre in Leh, expressed concern about the unusual warmth in Ladakh and Kashmir, causing early blooming of crops.

Raihana Habib Kanth, Dean of Agriculture at Sher-e-Kashmir University, highlighted the significance of snowfall during the Chillai Kalan period (December 21 to January 29) as a primary freshwater source before the southwest monsoon.

Temperature Anomalies and Dense Fog

IMD scientists reported maximum temperatures below normal by 5-8 degrees Celsius over the northern plains since December 29. A respite occurred on January 7-8 due to a western disturbance, but minimum temperatures remained below 4 degrees Celsius at various stations in the region from January 12 to 17.

The persistent and dense fog over the northwest Indian plains since December 25 reached its peak on January 14, causing zero visibility over the entire northern plains.

Contributing Factors: Lack of Western Disturbances and El-Nino Conditions

The severe weather conditions in north India are primarily attributed to the absence of active western disturbances over northwest India during December and January. Generally, 5-7 such disturbances impact the region during these months, but this winter has seen none. Two western disturbances in December and January had limited impact on Gujarat, north Maharashtra, east Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh.

The contributing factors include the lack of active western disturbances, prevailing El-Nino conditions, and a strong jet stream. Fog formation requires weak low-level winds, moisture, and overnight cooling, which are disrupted by strong western disturbances characterized by strong winds and precipitation.

Strong jet streams prevailing over north India for the past five days have led to the subsidence of cold air, enhancing cold wave/cold day conditions. These weather conditions are expected to persist for the next five days.

The lack of active western disturbances can be linked to the prevailing El-Nino conditions and abnormal warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean. El Nino years typically experience fewer cold wave days over north India during December and January.