 "Delhi Elections 2025 | AAP vs BJP vs Congress: Which party will win 'Delhi ka Dil'")
synopsis
While AAP is confident of winning a third straight term – counting on its freebies – BJP is leaving no stone unturned to reclaim power in Delhi after more than 25 years. Congress, which lost control of Delhi in 2013, is also fighting neck-and-neck to reclaim its lost ground in the capital. The big question is: who will Delhiites choose?
Delhi is all set to vote on February 5. The high-octane contest will see the Aam Aadmi Party, Bharatiya Janata Party, and Congress battling it out in the Assembly polls. While AAP is confident of winning a third straight term – counting on its 'freebies' – BJP is leaving no stone unturned in its bid to reclaim power in Delhi after more than 25 years. The Grand Old Party, Congress, which lost control of Delhi in 2013, is also fighting neck-and-neck to reclaim its lost ground in the capital. The big question is: who will Delhiites choose?
What's in favour of Aam Aadmi Party
AAP witnessed a landslide victory in the 2015 Delhi Assembly election, securing 67 of the 70 seats. In the 2020 Delhi Assembly election, the party won 62 seats. With its welfare schemes for low-income and middle-class families, AAP has managed to win decisively in the last two Assembly elections in Delhi. No wonder the party has doubled down on its promises for the 2025 Delhi Assembly election with 'Kejriwal ki Guarantee'. Through its manifesto, AAP aims to cater to both the youth and the elderly. Its promises include cash transfers to women, free power, 24/7 clean drinking water supply, free bus rides, scholarships for Dalit students, and pensions and healthcare schemes for the elderly. Kejriwal has a track record of fulfilling his 'freebie' promises, and the people of Delhi are likely to believe him again this time, especially women.
BJP vs AAP
The BJP has been striving to win the capital since 1998, when it lost to the Indian National Congress. The Modi-led party is trying to woo the people of the national capital by leveraging its strengths while also mirroring what has worked for AAP. Its manifesto, 'Vikasit Dilli Sankalp Patra', includes promises aimed at gaining women's voter share — such as the Rs 2,500 cash transfer and free LPG cylinders — targeting youth with commitments for government positions and a metro travel scheme for students, and offering Rs 10 lakh in health insurance for the elderly. The BJP has also promised to continue existing schemes, positioning this as its masterstroke to gain voters’ trust. The party is also capitalizing on AAP's weaknesses. Many Delhi voters are having second thoughts about the ruling party due to serious corruption allegations against its prominent leaders, including Arvind Kejriwal. As a result, the BJP is likely to benefit from the erosion of trust in AAP.
Congress vs BJP vs AAP
In 2013, Sheila Dikshit, Delhi’s long-standing Chief Minister, was defeated by political newcomer Arvind Kejriwal. Now, in a surprising twist, Kejriwal faces her son, Sandeep Dikshit. Will history repeat itself, but with a different outcome this time? Congress certainly hopes so and has worked hard to reflect that ambition in its manifesto. While AAP and BJP have both carefully crafted their manifestos to appeal to all sections of society, Congress hasn’t fallen behind. It promises Rs 2,500 per month to women under its 'Pyari Didi Yojana' and Rs 25 lakh in health insurance coverage through its 'Jeevan Raksha Yojana'. In line with its competitors, Congress has also pledged up to 300 units of free electricity. Additionally, it promises subsidized LPG cylinders, taking a direct aim at the BJP and AAP. With its mix of promises, Congress is making a strong play to reclaim its place in Delhi's political landscape.
Voting patterns for AAP, BJP and Congress in Delhi
AAP has garnered significant support from middle class and lower-income groups in urban areas, particularly focusing on those benefiting from welfare schemes like free electricity, water, and health programs. In the 2020 Delhi elections, AAP received around 53.6% of the popular vote, reflecting strong backing from these demographics.
The BJP traditionally draws support from upper-middle class and working-class communities. It has a notable presence in urban and suburban areas, especially among voters who prioritize law and order, national security, and economic development. In 2020, the BJP secured about 38% of the vote, reflecting its appeal to these sections of society.
Congress's support base has shrunk in recent years, but it still retains backing from certain older voters, particularly in poorer urban and rural areas. It also tends to attract a portion of Dalit and minority voters, though its share has significantly declined in Delhi over the past decade. In 2020, Congress received around 4.26% of the vote, showing a stark decrease from its earlier dominance.
AAP vs BJP vs Congress: Who has the edge?
Himanshu Prasad Roy, Professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University’s (JNU) Centre for Political Studies, told Asianet Newsable: “As of now, JDM (Jhhuggi-Jhopri, Dalit, and Muslims) is intact with the ruling party—AAP. It would be interesting to see how much the RSS and the BJP managed to make inroads in these segments.”
“Muslims are not going anywhere. They are with the AAP. There might be some change in Jhhugi-Jhopri because in these clusters the voters from upper castes also reside. They may go along with the BJP this time.”
He also opined that there is a possibility that the BJP may emerge as the single largest party, but crossing the magic figure of 36 is still doubtful.
Shashi Shankar Singh, a Delhi-based political commentator, said, “The BJP is trying to wrest power from AAP. This is the reason why the saffron party has deployed a volley of its ranks and files from all parts of the country. They are banking upon the anti-incumbency of the Kejriwal government.”
Echoing similar views of Himanshu Prasad Roy, Shashi Shankar Singh said that the Muslims are still inclined towards the AAP, adding that the Poorvanchalis are also weighing the AAP strongly.
As of now, the AAP has an advantage as the traditional voters are strongly with Kejriwal.
Talking about the BJP’s prospect in this election, Shashi Shankar Singh said that the BJP has a 32-25 percent vote share in the assembly election, but when it comes to the Lok Sabha election, it gets over 50 percent. This time, the party tries to arrest those 20-odd percent that get drifted in the assembly election.”
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