A Diplomatic Dance in Bangkok: What Modi-Yunus Talks Mean for India-Bangladesh Ties

On April 4, 2025, the bustling corridors of the 6th Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) Summit in Bangkok will witness a meeting that could either mend the frayed threads of bilateral relations between India and Bangladesh, or further strain the delicate fabric of goodwill between the two countries.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first face-to-face engagement with Bangladesh’s Chief Adviser, Muhammad Yunus, since the interim government assumed power in Dhaka in July 2024 is more than a routine bilateral summit. It is a high-stakes diplomatic tango, set against a backdrop of regional ambitions, geopolitical jostling and months of simmering tensions.

This meeting’s significance cannot be overstated. For decades, India and Bangladesh have shared a relationship rooted in history, geography and mutual economic interests. The ouster last year of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, a steadfast ally of New Delhi who followed in the footsteps of her father, ‘Bangabandhu’ Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the founding-president of Bangladesh, marked a turning point. Her departure, followed by her prolonged stay in India, has cast a shadow over bilateral ties.

Add to this the reports of attacks on the minorities in Bangladesh—particularly Hindus—and Dhaka’s unease with India’s perceived reluctance to extradite Hasina, and the recipe for mistrust is ready. Yunus, a Nobel laureate-turned-interim leader, steps into this fraught narrative with a mandate to stabilize Bangladesh and redefine its regional role. His meeting with Modi is a litmus test of whether pragmatism will triumph over the recent rancour.

What makes this encounter particularly intriguing is Yunus’s recent overtures to Beijing. His suggestion that India’s northeastern states—along with Bhutan, Nepal and Bangladesh—could serve as an “extension of the Chinese economy” has justifiably raised hackles in Delhi. The comment, made during a visit to China earlier this week, hints at a potential recalibration of Bangladesh’s foreign policy—with an eastward tilt that could unsettle India’s strategic calculus.

The northeastern states, known by the moniker, ‘Seven Sisters’, are a sensitive region for India, both developmentally and geopolitically. Any suggestion of their integration into the Chinese economic sphere is bound to stoke misgivings, especially given India’s ongoing border tensions with China and its efforts to bolster connectivity in the Bay of Bengal region.

Yet, this meeting is not just about clearing the air over Yunus’s remarks. It is an opportunity to recalibrate a relationship that has been tested by recent events. India has long viewed Bangladesh as a key partner in its ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy and its ‘Act East’ strategy. The BIMSTEC framework, which Modi has championed as a vehicle for regional development, places Bangladesh at its heart. From countering terrorism to boosting trade, the two nations have much to gain from bilateral cooperation. However, the interim government’s priorities—stabilizing a politically volatile Bangladesh while addressing economic challenges—may not align seamlessly with India’s vision of a tightly knit Bay of Bengal community.

The stakes are high for both leaders. For Modi, this is a chance to reaffirm India’s role as a benevolent regional leader, one that can engage even with a government that it views with caution. His packed schedule in Bangkok—bilateral talks with leaders from Thailand, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Nepal and, possibly, Myanmar—underscores his ambition to weave a web of partnerships that bolster India’s influence.

The upgrade of India-Thailand ties to a ‘Strategic Partnership’ on April 3, with agreements on digital technology and northeastern development, signals Delhi’s intent to accelerate regional connectivity. A successful dialogue with Yunus could reinforce this momentum, ensuring Bangladesh remains a willing participant rather than a reluctant bystander.

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For Yunus, the meeting is a tightrope walk. He must balance domestic pressures—where anti-India sentiments, especially among the majority Muslim community, have flared over Hasina’s refuge—with the undeniable reality of Bangladesh’s dependence on India for trade, energy and security cooperation. His Beijing comments may have been a strategic signal, a bid to diversify Bangladesh’s options in a region increasingly shaped by Sino-Indian rivalry.

But alienating India, a neighbour with whom Bangladesh shares a 4,096-kilometre border, is a risk he can ill afford to take. A constructive dialogue with Modi could pave the way for renewed collaboration, perhaps even addressing such thorny issues as minority rights and Hasina’s status with a degree of candour.

The broader implications of this meeting ripple beyond the bilateral sphere. BIMSTEC, envisioned as a bridge between South and South-East Asia, hinges on the cooperation of its members. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar’s remarks on April 3 about the India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway being a ‘game-changer’ reflect India’s push for physical and economic connectivity. Yunus’s vision of a Chinese-linked region, however, introduces a counter-narrative—one that Delhi will, no doubt, keenly challenge. The Modi-Yunus talks could thus shape not just their bilateral ties, but the future trajectory of BIMSTEC, itself.

As the two leaders sit down at noon on April 4, the world will be watching. Will this be a meeting of reconciliation where mutual interests triumph over mistrust? Or will it expose deeper fault lines, pushing Bangladesh closer to China’s orbit? The answers lie in the diplomatic finesse that Modi and Yunus bring to the table. For India, it is a chance to reclaim its influence in a shifting neighbourhood. For Bangladesh, it is an opportunity to assert its agency without burning bridges.

In the Bay of Bengal’s choppy waters, this Bangkok rendezvous could well be a defining moment.

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(The author Girish Linganna of this article is an award-winning Science Writer and a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru. He is also Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. You can reach him at: girishlinganna@gmail.com)