Global Oil Market Faces Supply Glut Fears Despite Fresh Price Gains

Crude oil prices moved up on February 9, 2026, with the benchmark trading near $63.68 per barrel, a small daily gain of about 0.21%. Over the past month, prices have increased by more than 7%, though they still remain notably lower than levels seen a year earlier. Market data shows that oil continues to move in a narrow range as traders reassess risks and supply trends across major producing regions.

Recent market activity indicates that prices have been influenced more by global events than by pure supply and demand signals. In earlier trading periods, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has hovered around the low-to-mid $60 per barrel range during phases of uncertainty.

Oil markets have been reacting to political developments, especially discussions linked to Iran’s nuclear programme and the possibility of easing tensions. Any sign of a deal that could reduce sanctions tends to calm markets, while the risk of tighter restrictions on Iranian exports usually pushes prices up.

In recent weeks, prices had already climbed after tensions raised fears that oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz could be disrupted. Earlier reports also showed that supply concerns connected to Iran and other conflicts helped lift oil benchmarks, even when global inventories were rising.

Because of this uncertainty, traders have been adding a “risk premium” to oil prices. This means the price includes extra value to reflect possible supply shocks.

Despite the recent gains, the wider outlook suggests that the oil market could still face excess supply. Production increases from OPEC members, along with strong output from the United States, Canada and Brazil, are expected to keep global supply high.

Analysts have repeatedly warned that additional production could worsen a surplus in the market, especially if demand does not grow at the same pace. Estimates from international agencies indicate that global oil output may exceed demand by several million barrels per day this year, which could limit any sharp rise in prices.

External shocks make pricing less predictable

Experts say the oil market is facing more frequent price swings due to geopolitical tensions, sanctions, and unclear stockpiling data. These outside factors make it harder for prices to reflect the actual balance between supply and demand.

As a result, even small political developments or trade decisions can trigger sudden movements in crude prices. For large importers such as India, uncertainty over trade agreements and sourcing options also adds to market volatility.

Overall, crude oil remains in a mixed phase. Prices have recovered slightly in the short term due to geopolitical concerns, but the broader outlook is restrained by expectations of ample supply. Unless there is a major disruption in production or transport routes, analysts believe prices may continue to move within a limited range.