Oil Prices Steady As US-Iran Talks And Supply Surplus Shape Market

Global crude oil prices remained mostly steady on February 16, 2026. Crude oil traded at 62.93 US dollars per barrel, rising slightly by 0.06% from the previous day. However, WTI crude oil futures later edged lower to about 62.7 dollars per barrel during trading, according to Trading Economics.

Over the past month, prices have increased by 4.25%. Despite this short-term rise, oil remains 11.85% cheaper compared to the same period last year. Market data based on a contract for difference (CFD) tracking the benchmark oil market confirms the trend. Historically, crude oil reached an all-time high of 410.45 in December 2025.

Investors are closely monitoring talks between the United States and Iran over nuclear issues. US President Donald Trump has warned of possible military action if a deal is not reached.

At the same time, Iran has signalled it may make concessions on its nuclear programme if sanctions discussions move forward. These developments have kept traders cautious as geopolitical risks often influence oil supply expectations.

In Eastern Europe, tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue to affect market outlook. A Ukrainian drone reportedly struck a Russian Black Sea port ahead of new US-brokered peace talks scheduled to begin Tuesday.

Such incidents normally support oil prices because they raise concerns about supply disruptions. However, current market reactions remain limited due to strong global supply conditions.

Despite global tensions, oil prices face downward pressure due to expectations of abundant supply. Reports suggest that members of OPEC+ may consider increasing production again from April.

The International Energy Agency has also maintained its projection of a large oil surplus in 2026. The agency has lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth, suggesting consumption may not rise as quickly as earlier expected.

Overall, oil markets are balancing geopolitical risks with supply concerns. While tensions in multiple regions continue to create uncertainty, strong production levels and slower demand growth are preventing sharp price increases. Analysts say future price direction will depend on diplomatic developments, supply decisions by major producers and global economic conditions.

Global tensions involving the United States, Iran, Russia and Ukraine continue to influence markets, but expectations of surplus production and possible OPEC+ output increases are limiting price gains worldwide.