Everyone's asking if actor Thalapathy Vijay can become Tamil Nadu's Chief Minister if his party, Tamizhaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK), wins just 37 seats. We break down the political math, looking back at a similar situation that happened in Karnataka in 2018.
After ruling the box office, actor Thalapathy Vijay is now in the political arena. But the big question is, can he become the Chief Minister? And is it possible to become CM by winning just 37 seats? Let's find out.
Can Vijay become CM with just 37 seats?
Actor and 'Tamizhaga Vetri Kazhagam' (TVK) president Vijay has announced that his party will contest all 234 seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu assembly elections. Vijay himself will fight from the Tiruchirappalli East and Perambur constituencies under the whistle symbol. Interestingly, in Edappadi, the stronghold of AIADMK General Secretary Edappadi Palaniswami, the TVK candidate has withdrawn, and Vijay is now supporting an independent candidate there.
Tamil Nadu Election Results 2026
Let's imagine a scenario where the Tamil Nadu elections for 234 assembly seats are held on April 23, with a high voter turnout of around 85%. A week after the polling, the exit poll results are released, sparking intense debate everywhere.
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TVK Vijay in the 2026 Election
According to these hypothetical exit polls, many agencies predict that the DMK will form the government again. However, they also suggest that Vijay's TVK will win a good number of seats. For example, the Axis My India (India Today) survey predicts that TVK could lead in 98 to 120 seats. The same survey estimates 125-145 seats for the DMK and 60-70 for the AIADMK.
Vijay vs M.K. Stalin 2026
Other agencies have also released their survey results. Praja Poll gives TVK 1-9 seats, P-Marq predicts 16-26, Kamakhya Analytics estimates 67-81, and JVC gives 8-15 seats. So, if Vijay's party manages to win 37 seats, can he actually become the Chief Minister?
TVK Exit Poll 2026
According to the rules of the Tamil Nadu Assembly, 37 seats are not enough to become Chief Minister. The assembly has a total of 234 seats. To form a government, a party or an alliance must win more than 50% of the seats, which means a minimum of 118 seats is required.
What could happen with 37 seats?
If actor Thalapathy Vijay's 'Tamizhaga Vetri Kazhagam' (TVK) party wins 37 seats, he can only become CM through a coalition government. This is possible only if other parties join hands with TVK, and their combined total crosses the 118-seat mark. But the real question is whether the bigger parties will support Vijay. This will depend entirely on the political situation at that time. If no single party gets a majority, it will result in a hung assembly.
The 2018 Karnataka Election Model
Recent surveys and exit polls predict that 'Tamizhaga Vetri Kazhagam' will emerge as a major force. While 37 seats is a huge achievement for a new party, it's not enough to form a government on its own or directly become the Chief Minister. You don't need to look far for an example; the 2018 Karnataka Assembly election is a perfect case study.
2018 Karnataka Assembly Election
In Karnataka, which has 224 assembly seats, a party needs 113 seats to form the government. In 2018, the BJP won 104 seats, Congress won 78, and the JD(S) won just 37. To keep the BJP out of power, the Congress party decided to support the JD(S). As a result, H.D. Kumaraswamy of the JD(S), with only 37 seats, became the Chief Minister in a coalition government (78+37=115).
Vijay vs M.K. Stalin 2026
Similarly, there is speculation that a similar scenario could play out in Tamil Nadu, with a possible alliance between AIADMK and TVK making Vijay the CM. Last time, the AIADMK won 75 seats. If they manage to win an additional 10 seats this time, taking their total to 85, and if TVK wins 35 seats, the AIADMK-TVK alliance would have 120 seats. This would be enough to form a government, and it's said that this could be Vijay's path to becoming Chief Minister.
