synopsis

Elon Musk's India-China pivot highlights the rising influence of billionaire-businessmen in global politics. As India organizes crony capitalism under Modi, Trump’s America risks sliding into a chaotic version of the same model.

 

In April 2024, Elon Musk was expected to visit India to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi. During this visit, he planned to announce a major investment to build a Tesla factory in the country, worth several billion dollars.

He changed his plans last minute and went to China, which caused a lot of angry news in India.

Even before he became important in Donald Trump’s second term, the incident showed how Musk plays a unique role as a valued link to Asia’s growing industrial powers.

Musk stands for what India wants from the U.S. — more money coming in, new technology, and a way to reach the White House.

In a simpler way, India’s close links between big business and politics help explain a new trend in the U.S., where billionaires like Musk support government plans and also have political influence.

In recent years, India’s political leaders and big business owners have become more closely connected. Billionaires like Mukesh Ambani and Gautam Adani run huge companies that are involved in nearly every part of daily life in the country.

Owning large business groups has made a lot of money, especially for India’s top business figures. Ambani and Adani are among the richest people in Asia, with Ambani worth $92 billion and Adani $57 billion, according to Forbes in mid-March.

In this situation, the Indian government often faces accusations of crony capitalism, which means that politicians are believed to be working too closely with big business for mutual benefit.

Opposition leader Rahul Gandhi focused on this issue during his campaign in last year’s national election, although Modi still won easily.

According to James Crabtree, a columnist for Foreign Policy, the connection between India’s government and big business has shifted since Modi became prime minister in 2014. In his book The Billionaire Raj, he describes the 2000s and early 2010s as a time filled with corruption and close, often unfair, ties between politicians and business leaders.

At that time, India was led by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who was honest but not very strong in leadership. His time in office became known as the “season of scams” because many major corruption scandals, each worth billions of dollars, came to light one after another.

Even back then, unfair favours between politicians and big business were common in India. It didn’t always involve giving cash in envelopes or suitcases — it happened in more clever and hidden ways.

Still, many people thought things were out of control. One person said, “Every minister acted like their own boss,” which wasn’t far from the truth. During Prime Minister Singh’s time, many leaders were blamed for being part of scams, especially in areas like phone networks and giving out rights to mine things like coal and iron.

Under Modi, the connection between the government and the super-rich has changed and become more controlled and guided by politics. Like Singh, Modi is also known for being personally honest.

Even though corruption still happens under Modi, big public scandals have become much less common. Nowadays, most ministers wouldn’t risk taking money for themselves because they don’t want to upset the powerful prime minister.

India’s system is starting to look like the close ties between business and government seen in some East and Southeast Asian countries in the past. For example, in the 1980s under Prime Minister Mahathir in Malaysia, or in the 1970s during President Park’s rule in South Korea, when the economy grew fast but the government had strong control.

In this system, a few very rich business people form close, give-and-take relationships with political leaders. In return, they help build things like airports, buildings, and phone networks that the country needs to grow.

Politicians often team up with powerful billionaires because it helps them achieve big goals quickly. In return, these wealthy businesspeople sometimes gain special benefits in other parts of their businesses, thanks to political connections. In India’s early days of scams, this kind of give-and-take was seen as a normal and acceptable deal.

Elon Musk’s role in the Trump administration is unusual—he’s involved in top-level politics, business decisions, and even global matters. In comparison, no Indian business leader holds such a wide-ranging or internationally famous position.

In a way, India and the United States are becoming more alike. Under Modi, India's crony capitalism (a system where business success depends on close relationships with Politicians and government officials) has become more structured and controlled. Meanwhile, under Trump, the U.S. seems to be heading in the opposite direction, becoming more disorderly.

The U.S. system that once supported open markets and fair competition is now being replaced. Businessmen connected to Trump are getting special deals in return for their support. In both global matters and economic decisions, the U.S. is moving away from following clear rules and fairness.

Of course, when billionaires and politicians work closely together, it might bring short-term benefits like better infrastructure or more investment. But in the long run, this kind of partnership can lead to serious problems—one of them being the risk of disagreements and conflict.

One big risk is conflict. If Trump runs the economy by making deals with business leaders who are close to him, the whole system can fall apart if he later has a disagreement with them.

A system that depends on smooth teamwork between business leaders and politicians is always at risk, because arguments and clashes are bound to happen sooner or later.

Billionaire tycoons are often seen by the public as bold, independent heroes like in an Ayn Rand novel. But in reality, in countries with strong or controlling governments—like India, China, Russia, and now even Trump’s America—most business leaders are not in charge. Instead, they usually depend on those in power and often have to ask for favors or approval.

Despite their wealth and influence, Adani and Ambani are still very cautious around Modi—just like Jack Ma is careful about Chinese President Xi Jinping, or how any sensible Russian billionaire would be careful around President Putin.

Even Elon Musk has shown clear respect towards Trump in recent interviews, likely because he knows his special status could be taken away at any time. In the end, when it comes to the relationship between a powerful ruler and a rich businessman, it’s the ruler who has the real control.

In India, there’s at least some hope that the economy is improving. What started as a messy and selfish system of cronyism has now become a bit more organized and less openly corrupt.

Maybe in time, a fairer system based on clear rules will develop. But under Trump and Musk, the U.S. seems to be moving closer to a system where leaders use power for personal gain, not away from it. Many worry that a wave of scams in the U.S. might not be too far off.

(Girish Linganna, the author of this article, is an award-winning Science Writer and a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru. He is also Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. You can reach him, at: girishlinganna@gmail.com)